Emerging nations and the return of geopolitics—First Roundtable

Participants : Abdelmalek Alaoui, Uri Dadush, Olivier de Boysson, Karim El Aynaoui, Rachid El Houdaigui, Thomas Gomart, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Nizar Messari, Françoise Nicolas, Abdallah Saaf, Dorothée Schmid, Tania Sollogoub
Location: Rabat, Morocco, OCP Policy Center
Originally published by the OCP Policy Center

In 2014, the disappointing results expected for world growth brought to the forth the great inequalities which now exist among emerging countries, with, even more alarming for the long term, a general downward trend of their growth potential. Among the BRICS, only China shows a high rate of growth, which could possibly stabilize around 7%. India, with a rate of growth higher than 5% for 2014, should show some reawakening, notwithstanding very high structural deficits. For the first time since the beginnings of the 2000, Russia, Brazil and South Africa may grow at a slower rate than the G7 countries. These differences are hidden by the political will of the BRICS to develop financial institutions independent from the IMF and the World Bank (Durban March 2013-Fortaleza, July 2014). At the same time, in the analysis of world growth, we now have the concept of the “Fragile States” (Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia) to help identify some BRICS and other large dynamic emerging economies which may experience sudden stops. Apart from their structural issues, these countries suffer from important budget imbalances and high inflation rates. At the same time, other emerging countries, such as low income African countries and Asia, show resilience and dynamism.

In 2014, underlying international tensions suggest a “Return of Geopolitics”, Walter Russell Mead, Foreign Affairs, May-June 2014, i.e. a return to established political powers which strive to contest, directly or indirectly, the established order. Although the intensity and the magnitude of the crises and conflicts differ according to the regions, it creates a belief in the “end of globalization”.

In order to analyze the links between emerging countries and the return of geopolitics, the French Institute of International Relations (Institut français des relations internationals; IFRI) and the OCP Policy Center started in 2014 the IFRI-OCP Policy Center Roundtables.

This first roundtable will focus on China, Russia and Turkey; countries that are directly, albeit differently, affected by this return of geopolitics.

The territorial crisis between China and Japan, second- and third- largest economies of the world respectively could potentially destabilize the world economies.

The Ukrainian conflict has had a huge impact on the relationship between Russia and the world; the United States, European Union and Japan sanctions may further destabilize the region—Russia does not attend the G8 meetings any longer.
The effects of the war in Iraq and Syria, as well as the creation of the Islamist States, are felt non-only in the Middle East, but also in North Africa, the Sahel and Europe. Combined with Kurdistan and the refugee crisis, this war has become the epicenter of International tensions.

At this meeting, we aim to examine the links between the challenges of emerging countries and the return of geopolitics and question the expected as well as non-expected results. We will focus on the economic as well as the macro-political aspects of the issues emerging countries large and small are experiencing. We will focus on China, Russia, Turkey and Morocco.