Authors: Peter Draper, Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams, Beatriz Leycegui Gardoqui, Michitaka Nakatomi, Harsha Vardhana Singh, Uri Dadush
Originally published by the World Economic Forum
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is the first mega-regional trade and investment agreement this century. It brings together 12 countries from three continents, with per capita GDPs ranging from about US$ 2,000 to US$ 62,000 and economic systems pertinent to a range of policy issues emerging in the debate on new trade issues that are a focus of attention for producers and policy-makers in both large and small economies. Assuming that the TPP agreement comes into force, it will have various implications for different parts of the world. Diverse dimensions of those impacts are explored in this paper.
In Part 1, the contours of potential systemic impacts are outlined, with a focus on the multilateral trading system. The question of whether the rules agreed to in the TPP could serve as the basis for plurilateral negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) among like-minded member states is explored, particularly now that the Doha Round is unofficially over after the Ministerial Conference in Nairobi in 2015. Opinions on this are mixed, among parties to the TPP and non-parties alike.
Part 2 explores the broad dimensions of different geographies’ reactions to the TPP, encompassing four complex “regions”: Asia-Pacific; the countries included in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); Latin America; and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Finally, drawing on previous work on the mega-regional implications for the WTO,1
Part 3 reiterates the scenarios concerning mega-regional outcomes set out in the 2015 report entitled The High and Low Politics of Trade. Since it is currently unclear whether the TPP will come into force, owing to uncertainties generated by the US presidential elections and the potential aftermath, particular attention is paid to the trade debate in that pivotal country. Unfortunately, there is little cause for optimism; the “crumbling blocks” scenario set out in 2015 looks increasingly likely. That would take the world down a potentially dark path, the contours of which are not included in this paper.
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